The New Ten Races Most Likely To Flip in November
Rep. Martin McLaughlin (R-Barrington Hills)
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OPINION
We’re updating our Top Ten Legislative Districts that Could Flip as conditions on the ground (and ad dollars in the air) change the landscape with two weeks to go until Election Day.
This won’t surprise you, but the field still does not look great for Republicans Democrats remain extremely confident they have better maps, more money, and are set to pick up big on November 5. House GOP Leader Tony McCombie (R-Savanna) has continued to project Republicans could pick up five seats, but that’s sure looking like a long shot with their massive cash disadvantage and gerrymandered maps.
I’ve been pretty consistent in my belief Republicans lose 3-4 seats, and I still think that’s the case.
So, here you have it:
10. Senate District 40 (Previous: 10)
Sen. Patrick Joyce (D-Essex)
This is the only contested Senate race in the state, and a recent Nagel poll showed him within striking distance in this race. Since then, Senate Democrats have just flooded the zone with money on television likely extinguishing any real chance for Republicans to win this race. Democrats are confident Joyce will win by about the same amount he did against Nagel two years ago, which was around 11 points. If there’s hope for Republicans, it’s a district Joe Biden won by about six points in 2020 and there seems to be a belief Donald Trump will do better in that district this time around. Gonna be hard to move the needle enough, though.
9. House District 112 (Previous: 7)
Rep. Katie Stuart (D-Edwardsville)
Rep. Katie Stuart (D-Edwardsville) got a lot of bad press over the snarkily-dubbed “Katie Stuart Protection Act,” where Democrats tried to keep Republicans from slating an opponent in the race. The district is certainly trending away from Democrats, but Stuart started the quarter with over $600k in the bank and will probably be able to buy enough TV to get her across the finish line.
8. House District 76 (Previous: 6)
OPEN
I had this higher on our list previously because there was a feeling that Democrat Amy Murri-Briel, who is trying to replace moderate Rep. Lance Yednock (D-Ottawa) could be pinned as “too progressive” in this very moderate, working class, blue collar district. Republican Liz Bishop has worked hard but hasn’t seemingly caught on, from what we hear about polling in the district. Without the gerrymandered finger up to DeKalb, Bishop may be more able to make this a race, but it’s not looking like it at this point.
7. House District 79 (Previous: 5)
Rep. Jackie Haas (R-Bourbonnais)
Republicans hounded me privately and publicly when I had Haas on the list at number 5 earlier this fall. I do believe Democrats have a good candidate and there are circumstances Haas is vulnerable. It’s a district Trump won by a point in 2020 and Clinton won by a point in 2016, so it’s a toss up district on its face. But Senate polling had Republican Phil Nagel leading this half of the district by 5, and all conventional wisdom tells you Haas will overperform Nagel by 2-3 points.
6. House District 97 (Previous: 8)
Rep. Harry Benton (D-Plainfield)
Benton, a moderate freshman, has been hit a few times for hypocrisy in some of his votes. Republicans were holding serve with cash for their candidate, Gabby Shanahan, for quite a while, though Democrats dumped another half million into Benton’s camp the other day. Benton went up on broadcast TV yesterday, so they certainly don’t think it’s over. Biden won the district by 10 in 2020. Clinton won it by 6 in 2016.
5. House District 45 (Previous: 9)
OPEN
Conventional wisdom tells you Elmhurst City Council member Marti Deuter is a shoo-in for this seat. It was gerrymandered to bounce former Rep. Deanne Mazzochi, drawing her five houses outside of district lines. (Nope, totally unintentional.) It went for Biden by 17 points in 2020 and Clinton by 12 in 2022, but the Mazzochi/Jenn Ladisch-Douglass race was decided two years ago by 364 votes. It’s ripe for a tight race.
4. House District 114 (Previous: 1)
Rep. Kevin Schmidt (R-Millstadt)
Schmidt was the surprise of the 2022 cycle when he upset then-Rep. LaToya Greenwood in the long standing East St. Louis district. Black turnout was super low in the district two years ago, and some Metro East Democrats are concerned it will remain low this time around. They were a little slow in spending big money in the district, but have come in much bigger recently. Greenwood went up on St. Louis broadcast TV last week. Yet, Republicans remain surprisingly confident they can overcome the cash onslaught.
3. House District 47 (Previous: 3)
Rep. Amy Grant (R-Wheaton)
Grant is a notoriously terrible fundraiser. In the third quarter, she raised around $25,000. Democrats are putting a bunch of cash behind Jackie Williamson, who lost to Grant by about 5 points two years ago. But Democrats weren’t invested then. President Biden won the district by 12 points in 2020 while Hillary Clinton won it by around 7 points in 2016. Grant has been on these lists a million times before and has survived, but it’s time to wonder if her luck is running out.
2. House District 104 (Previous: 2)
Rep. Brandun Schweizer (R-Danville)
Schweizer inherited former Rep. Mike Marron’s district, which is a majority Champaign County district. Schweizer, a former Marine, is the brother-in-law of the Danville Mayor Rickey Williams, Jr., but isn’t known at all in the largest block of the district. He’s being vastly outspent by Democrat union guy Jarrett Clem. The biggest trend hurting Schweizer is southwest Champaign. That area used to be bread & butter for Republicans, but has acted very suburban since 2018, meaning, they used to vote for Republicans and now vote for Democrats. If you see those precincts come in for Clem on election night, you’ll know this one is a flip.
1. House District 52 (Previous: 4)
Rep. Marty McLaughlin (R-Barrington Hills)
McLaughlin isn’t getting financial support from the House Republican campaign arm and many GOP insiders have been left scratching their heads at the second term legislator’s strategy. He paid HRO to send a mail piece out in September but hasn’t reported much else. He finished the third quarter with around $145k in the bank and has raised about $30,000 in large donations since the first of this month. But what’s he doing with it? House Republicans have already laid the foundation for trying to lay the foundation to explain away McLaughlin’s loss.
