Top Ten Legislative Seats Most Likely to Flip in November
First term Rep. Kevin Schmidt (R-Millstadt) is one of the most vulnerable members of the legislature in November.
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OPINION
We’ve done these before (and I called 3 out of the top 5 correctly in 2020.) At the end of 2023, I did a handicap of 27 House districts that could be competitive this year.
This will not look great for Republicans, as you may imagine, but not every GOP insider is shaking in their loafers. I spoke to former Rep. Mark Batinick, who is now doing polling with firm M3 Strategies, who told me in their polling, mostly in the suburbs, More 2020 Biden voters are moving to Trump than 2020 Trump voters are moving to Harris. He also said the top two issues for voters are the economy and property taxes, which will generally be good for Republicans. But Democrats I’ve spoken to in recent days are extremely confident they have better maps, more money, and a Harris-led momentum in the state that will guide them to big wins in November.
These aren’t predictions of who will win, just races that are the most likely to flip.
Just a little context.
So, here you have it:
10. Senate District 40
Sen. Patrick Joyce (D-Essex)
This looks as if it will literally be the only contested Senate race this fall, so we have to get one Senate seat in the mix. Senate Republicans went up early with TV for their candidate, Philip Nagel, who faces an uphill battle against a well-liked, moderate lawmaker like Joyce. Senate Dems have all the money to spend, and they’re likely to make Nagel look like the Antichrist. But, surprises can always happen in a district President Biden won by just six points in 2020.
9. House District 45
OPEN
Rep. Jenn Ladisch-Douglass (D-Elmhurst) is vacating the district after one term. She defeated former Rep. Deanne Mazzochi in 2022, but Mazzochi was drawn out of the district by five houses in the 2021 remap, so she couldn’t run if she wanted to. Former Rep. Dennis Reboletti has moderated himself for a suburban district, but Democrats have a lot of firepower behind Elmhurst City Council member Marti Deuter.
8. House District 97
Rep. Harry Benton (D-Plainfield)
Republicans really like their candidate, Illinois Policy Institute staffer Gabby Shanahan. Benton is a union guy and House Speaker Chris Welch reallllly dislikes IPI and would love to embarrass them on election night. But this is a relatively swingy district.
7. House District 112
Rep. Katie Stuart (D-Edwardsville)
Stuart got a mountain of bad press when Democrats rushed through legislation to stop Republicans from slating a candidate against her earlier this year. The GOP began mocking it as the “Katie Stuart Protection Act.” She faces former Edwardsville Police Chief and current Troy City Manager Jay Keeven. Republicans have played down their chances in the district, interestingly, but this is a district that is trending to the GOP. Stuart has a giant cash advantage and a message that is trying to position her as an outsider.
6. House District 76
OPEN
Supermoderate Rep. Lance Yednock (D-Ottawa) is departing the seat and is hoping to hand the seat to former staffer Amy Murri-Briel, who goes by “Murri.” Murri-Briel calls herself a “pragmatic” Democrats, but Republicans are trying to define her as way too liberal for a heavily blue collar district. That may be the window for moderate Republican Liz Bishop. On paper, this looks like a pretty heavily Democratic district, but we’ve all seen the evidence that blue collar voters are trending toward Trump and Republicans.
5. House District 79
Rep. Jackie Haas (R-Bourbonnais)
Haas is well-known and well-liked in this Kankakee-based district, but Morgan, a former Pat Quinn aide, is attempting to paint Haas, who is in the Republican superminority, as one of the reasons for Springfield’s problems. Trump won this district by a whisker in 2020 and Harris may be holed up there this time.
4. House District 52
Rep. Marty McLaughlin (R-Barrington Hills)
Some Democrats will tell you McLaughlin is a lost cause and his Democratic opponent, Maria Peterson, is in the catbird seat. Peterson, of course, almost came ouf of nowhere in 2022 to almost beat Sen. Dan McConchie (R-Hawthorn Woods). I’m hearing McLaughlin’s poll numbers are stronger than you may think. McLaughlin hasn’t reported a large contribution, from a donor or the HRO, the entire quarter.
3. House District 47
Rep. Amy Grant (R-Wheaton)
At one point, I would have told you that Grant was likely toast, and she may still be. She is allergic to raising money, and once Dems start defining her bigtime on abortion, it feels like this one won’t go well for the GOP. Democrats are likely to go in big for their candidate, Jackie Williamson. President Biden won this district by 12 points in 2020.
2. House District 104
Rep. Brandun Schweizer (R-Danville)
Other than an inability to fundraise, which seems to be an ongoing problem, this may not be Schweizer’s fault. Democrats drew a very difficult district stretching from southwest Champaign to Danville and I don’t think people recognize just how suburban the very transient, very university heavy areas of southwest Champaign have become since 2018. Democrat Jarrett Clem has already raised a bunch of union cash on his own before House Dems have even gotten moving.
1. House District 114
Rep. Kevin Schmidt (R-Millstadt)
Schmidt’s defeat of former Rep. LaToya Greenwood in 2022 came as a surprise to many, but Democrats took the race for granted in a district that was drawn to be far less strong than the old East St. Louis-based 114 (think the old Wyvetter Younge district.) Schmidt needs the Republican-heavy eastern part of the district to come out big, while Dems will surely try to get every Black woman out with flyers and door knockers tying Greenwood and VP Harris together. I’ve been told Dems are “going to throw the kitchen sink” at this district to get Greenwood back to Springfield. President Biden won the district by seven points in 2020.